Post on 16-Jul-2015
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Monday, 13 April 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price 1st
Target
DHBK 52.00 51.00
QEWS 190.00 186.70
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,982.65 0.0 10.9
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,000 12,100 12,230
Support 11,960 11,850 11,760
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index reached the 12,000 resistance level and tried to penetrate above it; but with no luck in the last session. It also reached the downtrend line extending from November 2014 on the daily chart; this line may enforce additional resistance. In addition, the Index was flat for most of the previous session. This slow movement could be a precursor for a correction. Expected Resistance Level: 12,100 Expected Support Level: 11,850
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 12 Apr 15 09 Apr 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 306.2 454.5 -32.6
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 642.9 643.9 -0.2
Volume (mn) 9.0 13.5 -33.1
Number of Trans. 3,848 5,979 -35.6
Companies Traded 41 41 0.0
Market Breadth 20:19 25:14 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,620.10 0.0 59.6
All Share Index 3,195.44 -0.1 58.2
Banks 3,180.35 -0.4 50.1
Industrials 3,974.63 -0.2 58.7
Transportation 2,433.84 -0.1 51.6
Real Estate 2,564.94 -0.1 69.4
Insurance 4,109.12 1.4 51.0
Telecoms 1,357.60 1.6 54.1
Consumer 7,112.16 0.6 59.0
Al Rayan Islamic 4,467.47 0.0 66.3
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
ERES 17.10 0.6 70.4
QGMD 11.78 0.1 70.2
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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DHBK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 52.00 0.00 25,625
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 52.60 53.70 55.00
Support 52.00 51.50 51.00
Commentary
Overview: The bank created a Gravestone Doji, which is a bearish reversal candlestick. It reflects the change in traders’ psychology from buying during the last session to ending it with a sell-off that reached the low opening price of that session. This weakness might trickle down and extend in coming sessions; the name did gain over 7% since last March. Expected Price Retreat: QR51.00 A break below QR52.00 is needed to trigger the sell.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QEWS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 191.30 -0.62 4,105
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 194.00 196.20 202.00
Support 190.00 186.70 182.00
Commentary
Overview: QEWS created a price range bounded by the QR180.00 and QR194.00 levels and it has been trading in that range since May of 2014. The price reached the upper side of that range, creating multiple candlesticks with long shadows. That suggests selling took place every time the price reached around QR194.00. The MACD shows momentum is being lost on both time frames. Thus an upcoming drop in price is possible. However, if the price break above the QR194.00 level, then this call is refuted. Expected Target Price: QR186.70 – QR182.00 A break below QR190.00 triggers the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,982.65 11,912.29 11,946.17 11,967.10 12,000.98 12,034.86 12,055.79 12,089.67 12,088.59 12,219.39 12,788.87
Total Return 18,620.10 18,510.76 18,563.41 18,595.93 18,648.58 18,701.23 18,733.75 18,786.40 18,441.13 18,430.65 19,177.23
All Share 3,195.44 3,177.69 3,186.04 3,191.20 3,199.54 3,207.89 3,213.05 3,221.39 3,180.30 3,168.26 3,273.82
Al Rayan Islamic 4,467.47 4,436.74 4,450.39 4,458.82 4,472.47 4,486.12 4,494.55 4,508.20 4,335.63 4,244.15 4,377.96
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 48.50 48.10 48.29 48.41 48.60 48.79 48.91 49.10 47.42 46.40 49.98
CBQK 56.80 56.27 56.50 56.64 56.87 57.10 57.24 57.47 60.91 61.65 62.62
DHBK 52.00 51.67 51.86 51.98 52.17 52.36 52.48 52.67 54.48 55.66 57.33
QIBK 102.50 101.23 101.69 101.97 102.43 102.89 103.17 103.63 102.84 102.68 105.89
QIIK 81.70 81.37 81.52 81.61 81.77 81.92 82.01 82.17 83.06 81.96 84.03
Insurance
QATI 78.20 77.40 77.78 78.02 78.40 78.78 79.02 79.40 78.44 76.99 79.23
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 149.00 143.07 145.32 146.71 148.97 151.22 152.61 154.87 143.62 132.30 124.52
Industrials
IQCD 142.80 139.67 140.89 141.64 142.87 144.09 144.84 146.07 145.51 157.75 171.34
QEWS 191.30 189.57 190.56 191.17 192.17 193.16 193.77 194.77 191.09 189.55 187.91
GISS 95.70 94.17 94.78 95.16 95.77 96.38 96.76 97.37 96.37 97.25 106.61
QIGD 41.45 40.82 41.01 41.13 41.32 41.51 41.63 41.82 41.19 40.99 48.22
Real Estate
BRES 47.00 46.47 46.77 46.96 47.27 47.57 47.76 48.07 47.49 45.85 43.70
UDCD 21.40 21.03 21.24 21.37 21.58 21.79 21.92 22.13 23.20 23.78 25.71
ERES 17.10 16.91 16.99 17.03 17.10 17.18 17.22 17.29 15.99 15.83 18.01
MRDS 19.18 18.78 18.91 18.98 19.11 19.24 19.31 19.44 19.32 19.56 20.80
Telecommunication
ORDS 102.50 101.03 101.49 101.77 102.23 102.69 102.97 103.43 109.11 113.07 120.83
VFQS 18.05 17.78 17.88 17.94 18.03 18.13 18.19 18.28 17.48 16.81 18.51
Transportation
QGTS 22.80 22.51 22.62 22.68 22.78 22.89 22.95 23.05 23.71 23.39 23.64
QNNS 98.40 96.87 97.75 98.29 99.17 100.05 100.59 101.47 103.13 100.13 97.79 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutions
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa
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