Welcome from UMKC School of Dentistry

Dentist Supply Needs - Approximation

1. Assumptions made in computation:

• UMKC graduates are 30 yrs old at graduation

• All graduates remain in active practice until 65 years

of age

• Constant number of practicing dentists in the 65+

bracket

• The desired ratio is 1DDS:2000 population

(continued)

The U.S. Census Bureau Series A model is an

accurate predictor of state populations. This

model projects the population of Missouri to be

6,137,000 in the year 2020. Published projections

extend only to 2025, but linear regression (r=0.997)

to the year 2038 predicts a Missouri population of

6,640,000 in that year.

1. Assumptions made in computation (continued):

•

2. General principles• If changes are made now, the number of dentists

in the state will not equilibrate until the year 2038.• With a target of 1DDS:2000 people, the target is

3,068 active dentists in 2020 and 3,320 in the year 2038.

(continued)

2. General principles (continued):

• Given the current age distribution and time lag between implementing change and its full effect on provider supply, attempting to hit the target precisely in 2020 will likely result in substantial oversupply in succeeding years.

3. Fundamental projection: Approximating the target of 3068 practicing dentists in the state in 2020 while avoiding serious oversupply in later years will require a steady influx of approximately

90 dentists/year in the under-35 age group.

(continued)

3. Fundamental projection (continued):

• Of these 90, about 72 would be graduates of UMKC destined to practice in MO, i.e. likely MO residents.

• Historically 55% of dentists in MO are UMKC graduates and 25% are St. Louis University and Washington University grads.

• Thus, 18-20 would be from elsewhere.

MISSOURI DENTAL BOARDLICENSEE REPORT

JULY 2004           

REVIEW OF LICENSEE COUNT OVER THE LAST 15 FISCAL YEARS

MISSOURI DENTISTS IN ACTIVE PRACTICE BY AGE GROUP (%)

1992-2000

Active Dentists By Ten-Year Age Groups

For Regional Planning Commission Areas

Under 35

35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & Over

Total*

2002 261 510 999 575 205 2,555

2004 (5)

262 470 900 824 320 2,776

*Includes Dentists Not Giving Age

Our Student Population

UMKC SCHOOL OF DENTISTRY CLASS OF 2010Prepared May 3, 2006

UMKC Class entering Fall 2006, 101 AADSAS(2005 cycle)

1,058 Applicants (876) up 21% 10,525 11%

54% (64%) Male 46% (36%) FemaleAfrican American 4 (0)Hispanic/Latino 2 (3)Native/American 1 (0)Asian/Pacific 6 (8)Caucasian 88 (89)

24.4 Average age

214 (175) Students Interviewed-includes 47 RAP students85 Missouri Interviews 63-28 RAP (62-9) 49 Kansas Interviews 26-19 RAP (24-2) 30 New Mexico Interviews 4 (9) 3 Hawaii Interviews 2 (3)12 Arkansas Interviews 2 (2)35 Other States Interviews 4 (1)

UMKC Science GPA 3.63 (3.5) RAP 3.77UMKC Overall GPA 3.67 (3.6) RAP 3.75UMKC DAT AA 18.5 (18.14) RAP 18.6 National Mean 17.42UMKC DAT Science 18.1 National Mean 17.21

47 Reserved Admission Program (RAP) (11)28 Missouri Science GPA 3.79 Overall GPA 3.71 DAT AA 19.0319 Kansas Science GPA 3.76 Overall GPA 3.79 DAT AA 18.30

- John W. Killip, D.D.S. Assistant Dean for Student Programs

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