Post on 18-Jan-2018
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1
The Economic Outlook for Connecticut
Rae D. RosenSenior Economist and Public Information Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkJanuary 21, 2004
2
Key Points:
• Connecticut’s economy appears to be turning.• The negligible rate of job growth in Q4 2003
is projected to rise to around 1 percent in 2004.
• The fiscal picture is improving but will remain difficult well into 2005.
3
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
#17 #6 #5 #4 #3 #2 #1
U.S. Average $43,057
Alaska
New Jersey
MarylandConnecticut
Massachusetts
New York
Source : U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.
National Ranking
Median Household Income2002
New Hampshire
4
Consumer Price IndexPercent change from 12 months earlier
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7Percent Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
United States
New York and Northeastern
New Jersey
United States - Services
U.S. Nov. '03 1.8%U.S. - Durable Goods Nov. '03 -4.6%U.S. - Services Nov. '03 2.9%NY/NE Nov. '03 3.1%
United States - Durable Goods
5
Second District Unemployment Rates
November 2002 November 2003United States 5.9% 5.9%Massachusetts 5.4% 5.4%New York City 8.3% 7.7%Connecticut 4.6% 5.0%Hartford 4.9% 5.3%Stamford 3.2% 3.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
9/7/01 1/26/02 6/16/02 11/4/02 3/25/03 8/13/03 1/1/043,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000sadj. 4 - week
CT Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted
Claims
Source: Connecticut Department of Labor
Claims
7
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Percent
United States
Percent
Wages and SalariesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier
United States 2003 Q2 1.5%Connecticut 2003 Q2 1.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
Connecticut
8
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Percent
United States
Percent
Wages and SalariesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier
United States 2003 Q2 1.5%Connecticut 2003 Q2 1.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
Connecticut
November
Avg, Weekly Wages rose 3.6%
9
Personal IncomePercent change from 4 quarters earlier
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Percent
United States
New York
United States 2003 Q2 2.8%New York 2003 Q2 1.2%Connecticut 2003 Q2 2.1%Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
Connecticut
10
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentMonth over Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent Percent
Connecticut
United States
11
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentMonth over Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent Percent
Connecticut
United States
12
Connecticut Net Migration
-21,000
-18,000
-15,000
-12,000
-9,000
-6,000
-3,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-21,000
-18,000
-15,000
-12,000
-9,000
-6,000
-3,000
0
Returns Returns
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income
13
Connecticut Migration
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200260,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Returns Returns
Connecticut In
Connecticut Out
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income
14
Net Domestic and International MigrationApril 1990 to July 1999
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Connecticut -226,370 73,389
New York -1,888,936 1,107,814
New Jersey -378,495 377,830
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
15
Net Domestic and International MigrationApril 2000 to July 2002
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Connecticut -7,438 36,270
New York -372,929 329,727
New Jersey -54,460 141,469
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
16
New York
ConnecticutNew Jersey
Massachusetts
CT to NJ 3,000NJ to CT 3,200
Percent of Workers That Commute fromOutside Area of Residence
Source: U.S. Census BureauC
T to
MA
14,
000
MA
to C
T 2
7,00
0
NJ
to N
Y 3
35,0
00N
Y to
NJ
126
,000
CT to NY 60,000
NY to CT 41,000
MA to NY 5,000NY to MA 6,000
17
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Percent Percent
United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
United States Nov. '03 -0.2%Connecticut Nov. '03 -1.0%
Connecticut
18
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Percent Percent
United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
United States Nov. '03 -0.2%Connecticut Nov. '03 -1.0%Hartford Nov. '03 -1.3%
Connecticut
Hartford
19
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Percent Percent
United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
United States Nov. '03 -0.2%Connecticut Nov. '03 -1.0%Hartford Nov. '03 -1.3%Stamford Nov. '03 -1.3%
Connecticut
Stamford
Hartford
20
Growth in Service Jobs% change from November 2002 to November 2003
US Connecticut Stamford NYCProfessional & Business 1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -0.8
Security/Commodity Broker 0.8 -0.6 n/a -2.8Accommodation -1.8 1.8 1.9 2.3Eating and Drinking 1.4 0.1 * 2.8Motion Pictures -5.0 n/a n/a -13.2Architecture & Engineering 0.1 0.0 n/a -3.1Social 1.6 3.5 3.7 2.0Health 1.8 0.3 ** 1.7Educational 2.3 3.0 n/a 5.2Recreation -1.4 3.1 n/a 5.4Legal 0.8 0.7 2.2 -1.3Total Services 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6Services as % of Total Employment 83.2 84.2 91 93.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations.
*Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation.**Data for Social and Health are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Social
21
Growth in Service Jobs% change from November 2002 to November 2003
US Connecticut Stamford NYCProfessional & Business 1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -0.8
Security/Commodity Broker 0.8 -0.6 n/a -2.8Accommodation -1.8 1.8 1.9 2.3Eating and Drinking 1.4 0.1 * 2.8Motion Pictures -5.0 n/a n/a -13.2Architecture & Engineering 0.1 0.0 n/a -3.1Social 1.6 3.5 3.7 2.0Health 1.8 0.3 ** 1.7Educational 2.3 3.0 n/a 5.2Recreation -1.4 3.1 n/a 5.4Legal 0.8 0.7 2.2 -1.3Total Services 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6Services as % of Total Employment 83.2 84.2 91 93.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations.
*Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation.**Data for Social and Health are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Social
22
Growth in Service Jobs% change from November 2002 to November 2003
US Connecticut Stamford NYCProfessional & Business 1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -0.8
Security/Commodity Broker 0.8 -0.6 n/a -2.8Accommodation -1.8 1.8 1.9 2.3Eating and Drinking 1.4 0.1 * 2.8Motion Pictures -5.0 n/a n/a -13.2Architecture & Engineering 0.1 0.0 n/a -3.1Social 1.6 3.5 3.7 2.0Health 1.8 0.3 ** 1.7Educational 2.3 3.0 n/a 5.2Recreation -1.4 3.1 n/a 5.4Legal 0.8 0.7 2.2 -1.3Total Services 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6Services as % of Total Employment 83.2 84.2 91 93.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations.
*Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation.**Data for Social and Health are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Social
23
Office Vacancy RatesQuarterly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
5
10
15
20
25
30Percent Percent
Source: Coldwell Banker.
United States-Metropolitan
Note: Q3 2003 Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 21.8%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield.
Metropolitan NYC
24
Office Vacancy RatesQuarterly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
5
10
15
20
25
30Percent Percent
Source: Coldwell Banker.
United States-Metropolitan
Metropolitan Stamford
Note: Q3 2003 Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 21.8%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield.
Metropolitan NYC
25
Office Vacancy RatesQuarterly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
5
10
15
20
25
30Percent Percent
Source: Coldwell Banker.
United States-Metropolitan
Metropolitan Stamford
Note: Q3 2003 Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 21.8%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield.
Metropolitan NYC
Hartford
26
Home PricesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Percent Percent
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
United States
New York
United States 2003 Q3 5.6%New York 2003 Q3 7.5%Connecticut 2003 Q3 7.1%
Connecticut
27
Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92Q2 93Q3 94Q4 96Q1 97Q2 98Q3 99Q4 01Q1 02Q2 03Q30.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2PercentPercent
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
New York
Connecticut
United States 2003 Q3 0.80%New York 2003 Q3 0.70%Connecticut 2003 Q3 0.52%
United States
28
Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92Q2 93Q3 94Q4 96Q1 97Q2 98Q3 99Q4 01Q1 02Q2 03Q30.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5PercentPercent
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Connecticut
New York
United States 2003 Q3 1.14%New York 2003 Q3 1.22%Connecticut 2003 Q3 0.86%
United States
29
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000.
Highest Degree ObtainedPercent of population 25 years old and older
U.S. Connecticut Stamford New York City
High School Diploma or Higher 80.4 84.0 82.2 72.3
Bachelor's Degree or Higher 24.4 31.4 39.6 27.4
Graduate or Professional Degree 8.9 13.3 16.9 11.6
30
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000.
Highest Degree ObtainedPercent of population 25 years old and older
U.S. Connecticut Stamford New York City
High School Diploma or Higher 80.4 84.0 82.2 72.3
Bachelor's Degree or Higher 24.4 31.4 39.6 27.4
Graduate or Professional Degree 8.9 13.3 16.9 11.6
31
$24,820
$63,582
$69,337$65,249
$48,834
$32,135
$50,756
$27,611
$39,355$38,293
$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000$55,000$60,000$65,000$70,000
10 20 30 40 50
Fairfield County
Hartford County
New York City (five boroughs)
Median Household Income and Higher Education
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000Note: Data are for counties, except where noted
Percent of Population Age 25 and above with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher
Westchester County
Kings County (Brooklyn)
Bronx County
Suffolk County (Boston)
Hartford City
New Haven County
Stamford City
32
Immigrants Arriving
Pre-1990
Immigrants Arriving
1990-1999
US Born 2000
Degree<High School 34 29 20High School Graduate 26 23 29Some College (<Bachelor's) 18 17 27Bachelor's or above 22 31 24
ConnecticutImmigrant and U.S Born Population by Educational Level
25 Years Old and Older(Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
33
Country of OriginPeriod Entered
Median Income* Number
Japan 1990-99 $60,000 774Non foreign born CT 1990-99 $38,000 1,201,814China, Hong Kong 1990-99 $35,000 2,441Philippines 1990-99 $32,000 1,478Foreign born pre1990 $31,200 151,105Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan 1990-99 $30,000 1,776Korea 1990-99 $30,000 469India, Bangladesh, Pakistan 1990-99 $27,900 5,297Poland 1990-99 $27,000 4,277Jamaica, Trinidad, Haiti, Guyana 1990-99 $20,000 5,291Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico 1990-99 $17,000 6,449Mexico 1990-99 $16,600 2,308Ecuad, Colum, Peru, Hond, El Salvador 1990-99 $15,000 5,489
Earnings in Connecticut
* Median Earnings 1999 for Connecticut population 25 and older with any incomeSource: U.S. Census Bureau