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The Economic Impact of New Infrastructure

Michael WegenerSpiekermann & Wegener

Convegno "Il corridoio del Brennero nel quadrodelle infrastrutture dell'Italia settentrionale"Trento, 16 September 2005

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Accessibility

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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in1910

© K. Spiekermann

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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in1970

© K. Spiekermann

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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in1997

© K. Spiekermann

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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in2020

© K. Spiekermann

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Accessibility andRegional Development

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Accessibility and development

Norway

DenmarkFinlandSwedenIreland

East Germany

Eastern Europe

Central Europe

Mezzogiorno

Northern Italy

MilanTurinRome

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Transport Infrastructure

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Road network in the AlpenCorS area

11 Rail network in the AlpenCorS area

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Airports in the AlenCorS area

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TEN/TINA priority projects in the AlpenCorS area

14Road projects: Valdastico/Pedemontana and Valsugana

15 Rail projects: Southern bypass and Valsugana

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The SASI Model

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SASI Model

GDP

AccessibilityProductionfunction

Employment

Migrationfunction

PopulationIncome

Labourforce

Transportpolicy

Unemploy-ment

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Scenarios

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Scenarios

No Scenario description

000 Reference scenario

Brenner tunnel scenario

AS1 Brenner tunnel

Local scenarios

AS2 AS1 + Southern rail bypassAS3 AS1 + Valdastico/Pedemontana motorwaysAS4 AS1 + Valsugana road and rail corridorAS5 AS1 + AS2 + AS3 + AS4

European scenario

AS6 All road TEN/TINA projects in Europe

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Scenario 000Reference Scenario

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Reference Scenario

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Reference Scenario

Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

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Reference Scenario

Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

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Reference Scenario

Accessibility road/rail (travel, million)Scenario 0002021

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Scenario AS1Effects of the Brenner Tunnel:

Accessibility

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Effects of the Brenner tunnel

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Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

Effects of the Brenner tunnel

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Scenario AS1Effects of the Brenner Tunnel:

GDP per Capita

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Effects of the Brenner tunnel

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Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

Effects of the Brenner tunnel

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Scenario AS6All TEN/TINA Projects:

GDP per Capita

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All TEN/TINA projects

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All TEN/TINA projects

Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

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All local projects

Accessibility road/rail (travel, million)Scenario AS5 v. 0002021

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All TEN/TINA projects

Accessibility road/rail/air (travel, million)Scenario AS6 v. 0002021

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Scenario Comparison

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Brenner tunnel (AS1): accessibility road/rail

Piem

onte

Valle

d'A

osta

Ligu

riaLo

mba

rdia

Venet

o

Friuli V

enez

ia

Giu

liaBol

zano

Trento

Alpen

CorS

Effe

ct (

%)

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Brenner tunnel (AS1): GDP per capita (Euro)E

ffect

(%

)

Piem

onte

Valle

d'A

osta

Ligu

riaLo

mba

rdia

Venet

o

Friuli V

enez

ia

Giu

liaBol

zano

Trento

Alpen

CorS

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Comparison of Scenarios: Trento

Brenn

er

tunn

el

South

ern

rail b

ypas

sVal

dast

ico/

Pedem

onta

naVal

suga

na

rail/r

oad

All lo

cal p

roje

cts

All TEN/T

INA p

roje

cts

Effe

ct (

%)

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Comparison of Scenarios: Trento

Brenn

er

tunn

el

South

ern

rail b

ypas

sVal

dast

ico/

Pedem

onta

naVal

suga

na

rail/r

oad

All lo

cal p

roje

cts

All TEN/T

INA p

roje

cts

Effe

ct (

%)

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What does this mean for Trento?

The Trento region can expect to gain from the Brenner tunnel 175 million Euro or 300 Euro per inhabitant per year (in Euro of 2005) in 2021.

If also the other local infrastructure projects are implemented, it can expect 230 million Euro or 400 Euro per inhabitant per year in 2021.

These figures do not include the benefits of improvements of the logistics infrastructure.

However, these figures relate to 2021. In the years until 2021 the benefits are smaller as they gradually build up following the implementation of the infrastructure.

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Conclusions

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Conclusions (1): accessibility

Good access to suppliers and markets is one of the preconditions for the production of goods and services.

Transport infrastructure is therefore one of the primary instruments of governments to promote regional competitiveness.

However, transport infrastructure can also increase the disparities between regions, generates more traffic and leads to higher energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

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Conclusions (2): macro trends

The regional effects of transport projects and transport policies are small compared with those of socio-economic and technicalmacro trends, such as

- globalisation, - growing competition between regions,- ageing of the population,- increasing labour force participation,- growing labour productivity.

Large increases in accessibility translate intoonly small changes in economic activity.

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Conclusions (3): the Brenner tunnel

The implementation of the Brenner tunnel will be a key factor for linking northern and southern Europe.

The accessibility effects of the tunnel will reach from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. The effects for freight will be even more far reaching than those for travel.

The economic effects of the Brenner tunnel will be smaller but also far-reaching.

The regions south of the tunnel exit, Bozen/ Bolzano and Trento, will benefit most.

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Conclusions (4): local projects

The local transport infrastructure projects south of the Brenner tunnel will spread the tunnel effects to adjacent regions.

The Valdastico and Pedemontana motor-way extensions will be most successful in promoting other regions.

If all three local projects, the southern rail bypass, the Valdastico and Pedemontana motorways and the Valsugana road and rail corridor, are combined, the effect of spread-ing the tunnel effects to other Italian regions are most pronounced.

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Conclusions (5): European projects

If besides the local projects also European transport infrastructure projects of the TEN and TINA programmes outside the Alpine Space are taken into account, the effects on accessibility and regional economic development are much stronger.

Although the TEN and TINA programmes have been recently re-oriented towards improving the transport systems of the new EU member states, the regions south of the Alps remain on the winner side.

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More information:

Modelling Regional Development in AlpenCorS. Final Report. AlpenCorSDeliverable 5. Dortmund, 2005.

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