1

Northern Hub – the business case

Duncan Law26 June 2012

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Why invest in rail – a reminder

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The economics

1. Within city regions2. Between city regions3. To access international

gateways EC

ON

OM

IC G

RO

WT

H

Adequate capacityReliable journeysReasonable journey times

4

Constraints in meeting service aspirations

Options for resolving constraints

Service specification for new infrastructure

Value of new specification

Identification of economic outputs

The economics – key corridors

Identify the economic gap

Compare the North GVA per capita to London & South East

Identify how rail can contribute

Connecting businessLabour to jobsMoving goods

5

The economics – key corridors

Timetable-driven passenger service benefit per unit Generalised Journey Time (GJT) improvement

Crowding benefits per incremental AM peak seat

Freight benefits per incremental freight path to Trafford Park.

6

Constraints in meeting service aspirations

Options for resolving constraints

Service specification for new infrastructure

Value of new specification

Identification of economic outputs

The economics – analysis

WEBTAGRevenueValue of timeNon user benefits Crowding

WEBS AgglomerationLabour supplyImperfect competition

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The economics – analysis

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Constraints in meeting service aspirations

Options for resolving constraints

Service specification for new infrastructure

Value of new specification

Identification of economic outputs

The economics – Conditional outputs

1. Capacity and Flexibility2. Carbon Reduction3. Performance4. Journey Times5. Growth Centres in Greater Manchester6. Connectivity to Deliver Economic Benefits7. Manchester Airport8. Trans Pennine9. North South Links and High Speed Rail10. Freight

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Delivering faster, more frequent services

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Funding for Northern Hub - Ordsall Chord

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Further funding for Northern Hub

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The evolution of the programme

SERVICE OUTPUTSBUSINESS CASE

INTERVENTIONS

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HS2 and the Northern Hub

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Manchester Victoria: before…..

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….and after

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Electrifying across the North West…

Phase 3

Phase 2a Phase 1

Phase 2bPhase 4

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…and across the Trans-Pennine route

Micklefield Junction

Heaton Lodge Junction

Copley Hill East Junction

Colton Junction

HUDDERSFIELD

LEEDS

STALYBRIDGE

GUIDE BRIDGE

MANCHESTER VICTORIA

Mirfield East Junction

Neville Hill Depot

CORE ROUTE TO BE ELECTRIFIED

EXISTING ELECTRIFIED

EXISTING NON-ELECTRIFIED

TRANS PENNINE ELECTRIFICATIONCORE ROUTE

ECML

Ashburys West

Junction

Phillips Park Junction

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Summary

• CP4

• Northern Hub

• North West Electrification

• CP5 renewal and enhancement portfolio

• HS2

SERVICE OUTPUTSBUSINESS CASE

INTERVENTIONS

20

Next steps

HLOS summer 2012

@networkrailNH