Post on 25-Dec-2015
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INTEREST INTEREST meetingmeetingRothamsted,October 2004Rothamsted,October 2004
Indicators and models:Indicators and models:Tools for ecosystems managementTools for ecosystems management
Margarida Cardoso da SilvaMargarida Cardoso da SilvaLNEC-LisboaLNEC-Lisboa
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Structure of the presentationStructure of the presentation
Need of management
Management methodology
Instruments
Indicators -
Concepts, variables
Evaluation criteria
Conceptual models
Building indicators
Models – concept, objectives, types, variables
Building a model - methodBuilding a model - method
ExamplesExamples
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Need for managementNeed for management
Growing concern on use of natural resourcesSustainability relies on strategic managementManagement goals:
Protection – to preserve human investment and defence against accidents and natural disasters.
Conservation – to guarantee the preservation of physical and biological domains, productive and diverse with an intrinsic value as ecosystem
Resource management - to harmonize conflicting and competitive uses
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Management MethodologyManagement Methodology
General methodology, function of:
The type of ecosystemThe issues to address
Includes a phase of:
Planning, Implementation Revising.
Uses management instruments
Revision of the plan
Instruments Strategies
Strategicobjectives
Sustainability
GoalsOperationalobjectives
Performanceevaluation
Operational plan
Definition ofpriority of action
Objectives
Identificationand analysisof problems
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ManagementManagement instrumentsinstruments
Regulatory -institutional measures
Political Legal Administrative
Economic - the existence of financial stimuli and the possibility of voluntary action
Technical and scientific - rely on scientific knowledge
Environmental indicators (characterization, monitor progress and effects of management action)
Modeling techniques Diagnosis - support Diagnosis - support understanding of processes understanding of processes Prognosis - forecast effects Prognosis - forecast effects of changing pressures on of changing pressures on the state of the ecosystemthe state of the ecosystem
Geographical information systems(geo-referenced representations of the ecosystems, of their context and uses, and of their characteristics
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Environmental indicators Basic conceptsBasic concepts
“…a descriptor of the pressures on the system, of its state and the changes of the system.
Or,:…as quantitative or qualitative measures that can be assessed in relation to a criterion that describes features of an ecosystem or the related social system, or described elements of prevailing policy and management conditions and human driven processes indicative of the state of the eco-and social system.
Organized in a conceptual frameworkAssociated with evaluation criteria
Associated with a temporal and spatial domain
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Environmental indicators Basic conceptsBasic concepts
Parameter - environmental variable that can be measured or to wich can be associated a numerical value relevant to the characterization of the environment
Environmental indicators- sets of parameters or of values derived from them relevant to the characterization of specific aspects of a certain region or of its evolution.
Indices - numerical values calculated from the environmental variables that aim to represent in an only numerical value, a certain generic aspect of the environmental state of an ecosystem.
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From variables to indicatorsFrom variables to indicators
Types of variables to build indicatorsState variables, in a generalized
thermodynamic sensu, which are stocks e. g. of mass or energy.
Fluxes, as measures of variation of state variables or of the controlling forcing functions.
Ratios between state variables, between fluxes and between state variables and fluxes.
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Environmental indicatorsTarget audienceTarget audience
Total amount of information
Growing data processing Indicators for
public
Indicators for managers
Indicators for scientists
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Environmental indicators Evaluation criteriaEvaluation criteria
Reference valueWhat guarantees the sustainability of the systemMinimum anthropogenic interventions - pristine conditionsDefined on the basis of scientific knowledge
Objective valueConsiders scientific knowledgeSocio economic and management factors
The selection of evaluation criteria is complex and very relevant
Effects on the final judgment
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Environmental indicators Summary of propertiesSummary of properties
Allow the organization of information in a systematic way
Sensitive to action (information, management, actions)
Are associated with criteria and objectives
Understandable by wide audiences
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Environmental indicators Conceptual framework Conceptual framework
Stateof the
Environment
WaterSediments
Biota
Human Activity
Resources(use)
EmissionsEnergy
AgricultureIndustry
EconomicEnvironmental
Agencies
AdministrationPrivate
Pressures State Response
Responses from Society (action)
Human Activity
EnergyAgriculture
Industry
Driving-forces Impacts
Values
Public Health
Biodiversity
Functions
Recreation
FisheriesFood
Macro economic policies
Prioritize action
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Environmental indicators Examples of applicationExamples of application
European Union - European Environment AgencyState of the Environment Report
Pressure indicators State indicators Impact indicators
Uses
Population density Microbiological contamination
Density of recreational activities Organic matter
Infra-structures
Emissions
Nutrients (N, P)Concentration of N-NO3 Eutrophication
Red tides
Oil Visible films
Metals (Cu, Cr, Cd, Hg, Pb, Ni, Zn)
In sediments and biota
Organic micropolutants In sediments and biota
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Environmental indicators Examples of applicationExamples of application
US-Environmental Protection Agency
1st order: Changes in behavior. Evaluate the need of action
2nd order: Pollution abatement. Evaluate the reduction of pollution loads as a consequence of
management/policy action3rd order: Water and sediment quality. Inform
about the degree of the changes4th order: Biota and habitat. Provide information
about the extension of the changes in the health of ecosystems and organisms and on the economy of the region
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Building a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators (1) (1)
Issues identification
Conceptual Model
Seleccion of variables
Data baseUses and functionsof the ecosystem
Users
Qualityobjectives
Legislationand
norms
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Environmental indicatorsBuilding a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators
Issues
Relevance criteria Legal-economic Ecologic Public health Data availability
Examples: Eutrophication Oxygen content Xenobiotics Habitat integrity Economic output
Types of variables
Context information Morphology Hydrology
Pressure Susceptibility Loads of matter and
energy Accidents
State Presence
/concentrations of substances
Response Operational, structural
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Environmental indicatorsBuilding a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators
Significant values
Evaluation criteria
Values of indicators
Data base
Space domain
MorphologyHidrology
ReferenceObjective
Classes of quality
Temporal domain
Temporalscales
Graphic and Algebraic
algorithms
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Building a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators
Indicators
Test values Dimension removal
Normalized Indicator Algebraic operador Penalty curves
Quality classes
Rules of agregation
IntegrationSpatial –homogeneous zonesMorphologySalinityManagement / uses
Temporal – time scalesSeasonalMoon
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Models as management tools
...in science, a model has the
objective to understand and
represent, even partially, reality.Models are about:
“discovery/understanding”. Behaviour Models are at the same time true and not
true.
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Models as management tools
Models
Dynamic representation of the influence of controlling factors and of inter-relationships between state variables
Objectives of modelling:
Provide a representation of reality
Uncover relationships between variables (state and forcing functions) –better understanding of the system - diagnosis modelling
Forecast values of variables and of the behaviour of the system - prognosis modelling
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Modelling processModelling process
Conceptual model – tell the story we know about the system. Identify:
Interdependencies
Influence of external factors
Time scales
Boundaries (what is part and is not part of the system)
Verbal
Schematic (blocks diagram)
Symbolic language (Odum, Forrester)
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Modelling process
VariablesState variables – stocksForcing functions / driving forces-
externalFluxes of matter and energyRates – control fluxesSupport variables
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Conceptual modelConceptual model
River
AreaWater levelVolume
Paddy fieldFlux
Poim_river
Flux River_poim
Flux Poim_fields
Flux Fields_poim
POIM AreaWater levelVolume
Driving forcesTideFresh water flow
0
1
2
3
4
5
4 5 6 7 8
Time (days)
Ele
vat
ion
(m
)
Control functionDesired level inside the khazan
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Conceptual modelConceptual model
River
Salinity
Paddy field
Salt flux Poim_river
Salt flux River_poim
Salt flux Poim_fields
Salt flux Fields_poim
POIMSalinity
Driving forcesEstuarine salinity
0
1
2
3
4
5
4 5 6 7 8
Time (days)
Ele
va
tio
n (
m)
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Symbolic languagesSymbolic languages
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Symbolic languagesSymbolic languages
State variables – stocks
Auxiliary variables
Constants
Fluxes of information
Fluxes of matter and energy
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Modelling process (2)Modelling process (2)
Define mathematical relations
Identify time units (depending on time scales of processes)
Choose values for:
Initial conditions of state variables
Parameters
Constants
Start simulations
Check obvious errors (e.g.- stop river flow and volume variation does not respond)
Analyse results – calibrate-validate
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Conceptual modellingSchematic representation
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FormulationFormulationSystem of equationsSystem of equations
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Ecological modelsEcological models
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Final remarks (1)
Different management instruments are not mutually exclusiveHave the potentiality to be used in ecosystems of different nature (agro-forest, production forest, aquatic) as diverse are the case studies of the INTEREST Project. Selection of indicators is a starting point to identify model variables
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Final remarks (2)
Modelling exercise contributes to identify relationships between variablesAn initial understanding of the relevant process is needed to allow the development of any of the types of toolsNo useful conclusions without a basic set of data