Post on 01-Apr-2015
1Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden, www.sse.edu
Lars E.O. SvenssonWeb: larseosvensson.se
The RBNZ and IJCB conference“Reflections on 25 years of Inflation Targeting”
Wellington, New Zealand, December 1-2, 2014
Forward guidance
2
Outline
Forward guidance as special or normal policy? The Swedish experience of publishing a policy-rate
path: Success and dramatic failure The broader picture of Riksbank monetary policy The New Zealand experience of publishing an
interest-rate path: Less dramatic, monetary policy better focused
Conclusions
3
Forward guidance: Special or normal?
Some info about future policy settings• Policy rate, other policy instruments (balance sheet)
Recently: Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE• Special: Binding Effective Lower Bound• Implementing more expansionary monetary policy
4
Forward guidance: Special or normal?
For many years: RBNZ, Norges Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, Czech NB• Normal: Published forecast of interest rate (policy rate or
90-day path)• RBNZ 1997-, NB 2005-, SR 2007-, CNB 2008-
Integral part of flexible inflation targeting• Stabilize inflation around announced inflation target and
resource utilization around long-run sustainable rate• Forecast targeting: Set policy rate and policy-rate path such
that forecasts for inflation and resource utilization “look good”
5
Forward guidance in form of published policy rate path: Reasons for normal?
1. Transparency: Coherent CB forecast of target variables requires CB forecast of instrument. Then publish this.
2. Effectiveness: Management of expectations (of the future policy rate)
3. Informativeness: Central bank should have more info about its future policy settings. Should be useful info for private sector and other authorities
4. Justification: Provides a coherent way of justifying policy choice by comparison with policy alternatives
5. Accountability: Simplifies external evaluation of policy by comparison with policy alternatives and assessments of tradeoffs between target variables
6
Developments of forward guidance as something normal
Forecasts of target variables conditional on:
1. Constant policy rate• If inflation forecast above (below) target, increase (reduce) policy
rate • Inconsistencies, not credible (Leitemo, Woodford)
2. Market expectations of policy rate: “market policy-rate path”
• CB forecasts of target variables may not “look good”• CB policy-rate path may differ from market path
3. Central-bank forecast of policy rate: “CB policy-rate path”
• Consistent (inconsistent) if market path equal (differ) from CB path
7
The Swedish experience of publishing a policy-rate path
Previously discussed by Svensson (2009, 2010) and Woodford (2012, 2013)
Success and failures Evaluate according to
(1) Predictability: Market forward rates predict policy-rate path
(2) Credibility: Market forward rates in line with (adjust towards) policy-rate path (successful management of expectations)
Distinguish “actual” and “intended” monetary policy A “credible “ policy-rate path may not necessarily be
“appropriate” Success: February 2009 Failure: September 2011
8
Riksbank policy rate and Riksbank policy-rate paths Feb 2007-Sep 2014
9
Riksbank policy rate and market policy-rate paths Feb 2007 – Sep 2014
A brief history Feb 2007 – Sep 2014: Go
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2009
Success!
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2011
Failure!
12
The Swedish experience
What was behind the discrepancy between Riksbank and market policy-rate paths in September 2011?
What was the broader picture of Riksbank policy?
13
Behind the discrepancy: Another discrepancy for foreign policy rates
September 2011: Riksbank forecast of foreign policy rates much above market expectations of foreign policy rate
14
Behind the discrepancy: Yield curves
1.7 pp
15
Behind the discrepancy: Another discrepancy for foreign policy rates
A lower Riksbank forecast for foreign policy rates would have implied a lower policy-rate path• With unchanged policy-rate path, a forecast of stronger
krona, the inflation forecast would have shifted down and the unemployment forecast would have shifted up
High forecast of foreign policy rates served to shift inflation forecast up and unemployment forecast down, supporting high policy-rate forecast
Resulted in Riksbank inflation forecasts biased upwards
16
Riksbank CPI inflation forecasts 2011 and 2012 and outcome
17
Actual yield curve implied much easier policy than intended
Market did not believe Riksbank policy-rate path Market possibly understood that it would lead to too
strong a krona, which would have forced the Riksbank to back down (this confirmed by informal discussions with market participants)
“Actual” MP much easier than “intended” “Intended” MP would have implied 5-year bond rate
1.7 pp higher Good for the economy that the RB policy-rate path
was not credible
18
The broader picture: CPI inflation 1995-2014 on average below target
19
Average inflation expectations close to target 1997-2011:Average inflation below average inflation expectations
To New Zealand
20
Average unemployment 1997-2011 about 0.8 pp higher than if inflation had been on target
Svensson (2015), “The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2015(1).
0.8 pp
21
Why the tightening in June/July 2010? Leaning against the wind because of concerns about household debt and
housing prices Not clearly explained June/July 2010: “Another factor [in relation to the policy-rate increase] is that household
indebtedness has increased significantly in recent years” (June/July 2010 press release)
“[A]n interest rate increase was also a signal to avoid new financial imbalances from building up and that household indebtedness ought not to rise too much” (Governor Ingves, in June/July 2010 minutes)
Sending a signal to households that mortgage rates would soon return to normal
Tradeoff w/ inflation and unemployment not admitted until op-ed by Governor Ingves in October 2012
22
Riksbank and Fed forecasts quite similar Policies very different
• Fed: Keep policy rate between 0 and 0.25%, forward guidance, prepare QE2
• Riksbank: Start raising the policy rate from 0.25 to 2% in July 2011
Riksbank: Ex ante clearly a premature tightening
Ex ante: Riksbank and Fed forecasts June 2010
Source: Svensson, Lars E.O. (2011), “Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden and the United States ,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2011, 289-332.
UnemploymentInflation
23
The leaning: Policy rates in Sweden, UK, and US;Eonia rate in euro area
Oct 28
24
The leaning: Inflation in Sweden, euro area, UK, and US
25
The leaning: Real policy rate in Sweden, UK, and US,real Eonia rate in euro area
26
Ex post: Policy-rate increases from summer of 2010 led to inflation below target and higher unemployment (and probably a higher debt ratio)
Cont.
Source: Svensson (2013), “Unemployment and monetary policy – update for the year 2013,” Svensson (2013), “Leaning against the wind increase (not reduces) the household debt-to-GDP ratio”,posts on larseosvensson.se.
LTV cap
27
Unemployment in Sweden and New Zealand
28
Riksbank’s case for leaning against the wind
Higher debt could imply (1) a higher probability of a future crisis, or (2) a deeper future crisis if it occurs
Hence, a tradeoff between (a) tighter policy now with lower debt but worse macro outcome now and (b) easier policy now with more debt but worse expected future macro outcome
Worse outcome now is an insurance premium worth paying Is that true? The answer can be found in the Riksbank’s own boxes in MPR
of July 2013 and February 2014, plus Schularick and Taylor (2012) and Flodén (2014)
This involves putting numbers on the cost and benefit of leaning
29
Cost of 1 pp higher policy rate: 0.5 pp higher unemployment rate
Source: MPR July 2013, chapt. 2; Svensson, post onlarseosvensson.se, March 31, 2014.
30
Benefit (1) of 1 pp higher policy rate: Lower probability of a crisis
1 pp higher policy rate leads to 0.25 % lower real debt in 5 years
Lowers probability of crises by 0.25*0.4/5 = 0.02 pp
Assume 5 pp higher unemployment in crisis (Riksbank crisis scenario, MPR July 2013, box)
Benefit (1): Expected lower future unemployment:0.0002*5 = 0.001 pp
Cost: Higher unemployment rate now: 0.5 pp
Schularick & Taylor (2012): 5 % lower real debt in 5 yrs implies 0.4 pp lower probability of crisis (average probability of crises about 4 %)
Riksbank, MPR Feb 2014, box:
Source: Svensson, post on larseosvensson.se, March 31, 2014.
31
Benefit (2) of 1 pp higher policy rate: Smaller increase in unemployment if crisis
1 pp higher policy rate leads to 0.44 pp lower debt ratio in 5 yrs
Smaller increase in unemployment in crisis:0.44*0.02 = 0.009 pp
With probability of crisis as high as 10 %, divide by 10 (Shularick & Taylor: 4 %)
Benefit (2): Expected lower future unemployment: 0.0009 pp
Cost: Higher unemployment now: 0.5 pp
Flodén (2014): 1 pp lower debt ratio may imply 0.02 pp smaller increase in unemployment rate in crisis
Riksbank MPR Feb 2014, box:
Source: Svensson, post on larseosvensson.se, March 31, 2014.
32
Summarize cost and benefit of 1 pp higher policy rate
Riksbank’s case does not stand up to scrutiny
Should have been > 1!
33
The New Zealand experience of publishing an interest-rate path
Longest experience, starting in June 1997 Previously examined by Archer (2005), Moessner and
Nelson (2008), Anderson and Hofman (2009), Detmers and Nautz (2012), Bergstrom and Karagedikli (2013)
Less dramatic than the Swedish experience RBNZ monetary policy better focused
34
RBNZ policy rate, 90-day rate and RBNZ 90-day paths Mar 1999 – Sep 2014
35
RBNZ policy rate and market policy-rate paths Mar 2004 – Sep 2014
36
RBNZ monetary policy: The broader picture
37
RBNZ monetary policy: The broader pictureInflation deviation from target midpoint
38
Average inflation expectations equal average inflation: No increase in average unemployment
To Sweden
39
Unemployment in Sweden and New Zealand
New Zealand: A brief history 2004Q1-2014Q3: Go
40
Success: March 2005
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
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Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2005Q1
41
Success: March 2009
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
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Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2009Q1
42
Actual policy tighter than intended: Sep 2009
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
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Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2009Q3
43
Dec 2011: Actual policy easier than intended
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
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Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2011Q4
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March 2012: Actual policy follows market
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
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Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2012Q1
45
Conclusions Swedish experience much more dramatic, and special Leaning against the wind: A high policy-rate path got priority
over inflation and resource utilization Case of “wag the dog” New Zealand experience much less dramatic Policy better focused on traditional goals A few cases of actual policy tighter/easier than intended Market sometimes ahead of RBNZ Sometimes problems with transparency, effectiveness,
informativeness, justification, and accountability Keep publishing policy-rate paths
46
47
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2007
History: Sweden
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0
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
June 2007
49
0
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
October 2007
50
0
1
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2007
51
0
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2008
52
0
1
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2008
53
0
1
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2008
54
0
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2008
55
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
8 October 2008
56
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
23 October 2008
57
0
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2008
58
0
1
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
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5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2009
59
0
1
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3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2009
60
0
1
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3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
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5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2009
61
0
1
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3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
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Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2009
62
0
1
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3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
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5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
October 2009
63
0
1
2
3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2009
64
0
1
2
3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2010
65
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2010
66
0
1
2
3
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5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2010
67
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2010
68
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
October 2010
69
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2010
70
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2011
71
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2011
72
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2011
73
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2011
74
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
October 2011
75
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2011
76
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2012
77
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2012
78
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2012
79
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2012
80
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
October 2012
81
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2012
82
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2013
83
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2013
84
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2013
85
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2013
86
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
October 2013
87
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
December 2013
88
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
February 2014
89
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
April 2014
90
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
July 2014
91
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
1
2
3
4
5
Repo RateOld repo-rate pathNew repo-rate pathDay beforeAfter announcement
September 2014
Back
9292
93
History: New Zealand 2004Q1- 2014Q3
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2004Q1
94
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2004Q2
95
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2004Q3
96
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2004Q4
97
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2005Q1
98
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2005Q2
99
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2005Q3
100
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2005Q4
101
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2006Q1
102
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2006Q2
103
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2006Q3
104
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2006Q4
105
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2007Q1
106
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2007Q2
107
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2007Q3
108
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2007Q4
109
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2008Q1
110
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2008Q2
111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2008Q3
112
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2008Q4
113
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2009Q1
114
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2009Q2
115
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2009Q3
116
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2009Q4
117
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2010Q1
118
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2010Q2
119
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2010Q3
120
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2010Q4
121
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2011Q1
122
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2011Q2
123
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2011Q3
124
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2011Q4
125
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2012Q1
126
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2012Q2
127
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2012Q3
128
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2012Q4
129
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2013Q1
130
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2013Q2
131
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2013Q3
132
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2013Q4
133
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2014Q1
134
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2014Q2
135
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Official Cash Rate90-day rateOld 90-day pathNew 90-day pathBefore announcementAfter announcement
2014Q3
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