Post on 25-Dec-2015
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American Public Opinion Toward Foreign Policy
An In-Depth View of the Electorate
Douglas E. SchoenMark J. Penn
July 2007
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Overview
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Overview
This poll is designed to provide an in depth look at how the American public sees American foreign policy.
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Overview
As we did last year, this survey seeks to look beyond traditional political polls and provide a detailed analysis of what the American people are looking for as the Iraq war seemingly winds down and as a presidential election approaches.
The goal here is to provide a more nuanced and balanced view of how the American people view U.S. foreign policy than snapshot polls provide.
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Overview
The poll was conducted with a representative sample of the national electorate with 1,006 interviews conducted between June 25th and June 27th.
The margin of sampling error for the poll is +/-2.5% overall and larger for subgroups.
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Key Conclusions
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Overview
Many commentators have looked at American attitudes and pointed to a so-called new isolationism that has appeared in U.S. foreign policy.
And while it is certainly true that the American people want renewed focus on the domestic agenda, they have by no means turned away from recognizing the need to directly confront international problems.
They strongly favor a multilateral approach, but still recognize the need for unilateralism if serious problems cannot be resolved in their desired fashion.
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Overview
We call this approach “The New Pragmatism.”
The New Pragmatism includes the following:
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Overview
1) A clear sense that our current approach is failing
2) An equally clear sense that we cannot retreat from conflicts and threats that exist abroad
3) A very strong desire for bipartisanship in the formulation of American policy and an equally strong sense that it does not now exist
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Overview
4) A renewed focus on protecting the homeland, reducing dependence on foreign oil, protecting American jobs from competition, and doing everything possible to eliminate nuclear proliferation
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Overview
5) A strong preference for using bilateral and multilateral forums to resolve conflicts
6) At the same time demonstrating an enduring willingness to accept the need for unilateralism as a means of protecting the nation and preventing terrorism.
7) They continue to believe that the threat of terrorism is very real.
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Overview
As we will show, this approach is non-ideological and wins support from a large majority of the American people on most specific foreign policy problems.
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Where We Stand Now
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Where We Stand Now
There is a clear sense that current policy is failing:– 67% say the country is heading in the wrong
direction– 67% say that U.S. foreign policy is heading in the
wrong direction
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Where We Stand Now
– 80% say U.S. relations with the world have worsened over the past five years.
– 63% say those relations continue to get worse: 35% blame President Bush 19% blame Congress 17% blame other countries 12% blame Democrats
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Where We Stand Now
Less than a third of Americans approve of President Bush’s job performance.
29%
71%
27%
73%
0
50
100
Bush overall Bush jobapproval
Positive rating
Negative rating
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Where We Stand Now
The top issues:
– 67% indicate the most significant foreign policy problem facing the U.S. is Iraq
– 34% suggest improving U.S. relations around the world is the second most significant challenge
– 33% maintain that fighting terror at home and abroad is the third most significant foreign policy challenge
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Where We Stand Now
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to focus on improving U.S. relations around the world while Republicans focus more on fighting terror.
Voters of all parties agree that Iraq presents the major challenge.
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Where We Stand Now
Americans think that the greatest success of the Bush Administration is fighting the war on terror.
38% 37%
20% 20%18%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Greatest success
Fighting war onterror
RemovingSadaam Husseinfrom powerDoctrine ofpreemption
Refusing to talkto countries thatfund terrorFundingprograms tocombat AIDS
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Where We Stand Now
Voters say the greatest failure of the Bush Administration is the Iraq war.
46%
35%31%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Greatest failure
Iraq War
NationalSecurity/Intelligence mistakes
U.S. foreignrelations havegenerallyworsened
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Where We Stand Now
The Result:
– 82% say people in other countries view the United States unfavorably
– 71% say people in other countries now view the American people unfavorably
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What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?
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What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?
37%
23%
13%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 End the war inIraq
Use the militaryless ininternationalaffairs
Work morethroughinternationalorganizations
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What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?
Importance of Bipartisanship
Parties disagree on most issues and hardly ever work together.
Agree
70%
Disagree
30%
Parties generally work together despite disagreements and can reach a consensus on foreign policy problems.
30% 70%
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What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?
What Voters are Seeking Agree
Achieve bipartisan consensus on foreign policy
85%
Parties have different views and should fight for what each thinks is right
15%
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What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?
How Important is Bipartisanship?
Very Important 55%
Somewhat Important 37%
Not Important 9%
• Over half of voters think bipartisanship is very important.
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Bipartisanship
American people do not believe we can achieve bipartisan policy on Iraq and immigration reform.
Can Bipartisanship be Achieved?
Yes No
Iraq 29% 71%
Immigration Reform 42% 58%
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Bipartisanship
Can Bipartisanship be Achieved? Yes No
Protecting U.S. Jobs from Outsourcing 47% 53%
Maintaining U.S. Superpower Status 48% 52%
Reducing Foreign Oil Dependence 49% 51%
Fighting Terrorism 50% 50%
Protecting Troops and Providing Them with Adequate Resources
50% 50%
Promoting Arab/Israeli Peace 54% 46%
Promoting Democracy 55% 45%
Fighting Global Warming and Climate Change 55% 45%
• On other key issues, American people are evenly divided on whether bipartisanship can be achieved.
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Bipartisanship
Can Bipartisanship be Achieved? Yes No
Preventing Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction
57% 43%
Defending Human Rights 60% 40%
Ending Darfur Genocide 62% 38%
Reducing Spread of AIDS 74% 26%
Reducing Spread of Malaria/TB 78% 22%
• Only on a few less controversial issues do American people believe bipartisanship can be achieved.
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Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy
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Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy
Top Tier IssuesProtecting the U.S. from terrorism 66%Reducing energy and foreign oil dependence 60%Ending the war in Iraq 57%Protecting U.S. jobs from outsourcing 51%Uprooting, jailing and if necessary, killing terrorist leaders 49%Preventing N. Korea/Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons 47%Strengthening alliances with allies and building new alliances 45%Preventing spread of weapons of mass destruction 45%
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Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy
Second Tier Issues
Maintaining U.S. position as preeminent military superpower
38%
Enacting immigration reform 38%
Finding Bin Laden 37%
Fighting global warming 36%
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Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy
Third Tier Issues
Humanitarian crises/stopping genocide 30%
Reducing spread of AIDS 29%
Ending genocide Darfur 26%
Fighting spread of TB/Malaria 24%
Fighting global poverty 19%
Promoting and defending human rights 17%
Promoting democracy 17%
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Threats to the United States
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Threats to the United States
Top Tier Threats
Terrorist organizations – Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda
53%
Iran’s effort to build a nuclear weapon 41%
Iran aiding Iraqi insurgents 39%
Global warming/climate change 36%
•Americans believe the largest threat facing the U.S. is terrorist organizations.
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Threats to the United States
Second Tier Threats
Cyber war and cyber terror 31%
Narcotics/international organized crime 29%
Israel conflict with neighbors 28%
China’s emergence as a world power 27%
North Korea 26%
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Threats to the United States
Third Tier Threats
Transitions occurring in Russia and China 20%
Tuberculosis in the Third World 20%
Growing economies of China and India 19%
Malaria 14%
Strains with Latin American nations 14%
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The Role of the United States
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The Role of the United States
83% of Americans believe that the U.S. should share a leadership role with allies and other countries in the world.
9%
83%
9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Role of the U.S.
Single worldleader
Sharedleadership role
No leadershiprole
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The Role of the United States
Most Americans say the U.S.’s role is equally as important as it was ten years ago.
28%
42%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Compared to 10 yearsago
More importantworld role
Equallyimportant role
A lessimportant role
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The Role of the United States
63% of voters think that the U.S. should focus on domestic problems rather than world affairs.
Active Foreign Role vs. Emphasis on Domestic Affairs
As a dominant superpower, the U.S. should be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems.
37%
We have enough domestic problems. The U.S. should take care of U.S. problems and stay out of world affairs.
63%
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The Role of the United States
But despite this seeming focus on domestic affairs, the American people recognize that we cannot retreat from confronting international problems in a unilateral framework if necessary.
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The Role of the United States
While the American people support bipartisanship and a collective, multilateral approach to foreign policy as well as a renewed concentration on domestic affairs, they have not abandoned unilateralism if it proves necessary.
Agree Disagree
If a grave threat to the U.S. is posed and other nations do not provide military or diplomatic assistance, a unilateral approach is appropriate.
71% 29%
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The Role of the United States
Despite apparent dovishness generally, in specific cases, Americans will support military preemption and war.
Agree Disagree
Support preemptive war and military action if necessary to prevent terrorism, before any attacks have been launched
64% 36%
Democrats 45% 55%
Republicans 87% 14%
Independents 59% 41%
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The Role of the United States
73%
8%19%
01020304050607080
To prevent an attackon our nation in thefuture, use of force
is…
Justified
Not justified
Sometimesjustified
Almost three quarters of the public endorses the use of force to prevent an attack on America.
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The Role of the United States
Use of forces is also justified when our allies have been:– directly attacked (74%) – when an attack on our allies is imminent (61%) – when an attack on our allies is possible (53%)
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The Role of the United States
67% say use of force is also justified to prevent nuclear war.
59% say use of force is also justified to end genocide or mass killings.
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The Role of the United States
To protect oil reserves around the world, use of force is:
Justified 52%
Not justified 15%
Sometimes justified
33%
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The Role of the United States
Americans are almost evenly divided on continued military engagement in the Middle East and North Korea:
– 47% believe our military should remain engaged – 53% believe the U.S. should pull back from these
theatres
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The Role of the United States
Democrats support a pullback by a 60%-40% margin while Republicans oppose a pullback by about the same margin. Independents divide as the overall population does.
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The Role of the United States
Americans are also evenly divided on whether there should be diplomatic relations with countries like Iran and Syria that support terrorism:
– 50% believe there should be no diplomatic relations
– 50% support relations
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The Role of the United States
Once again, Democrats support relations by about a 60%-40% margin, and Republicans oppose by about the same amount. Independents are evenly divided.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Most voters are pessimistic about the war in Iraq:
18%
82%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
How is the war going
Well
Badly
55
Specific Foreign Policy Issues
43%
57%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
The U.S. Will Ultimately…
Suceed in Iraq
Fail in Iraq
They believe we will fail in Iraq.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
60% of Americans support at least most or all troops being withdrawn from Iraq:
Troops in Iraq Agree
Increase troop level 14%
Keep about same level 26%
Pull most of the troops out 29%
Withdraw all troops 31%
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Despite the desire to remove troops, over half of Americans support continued funding.
Funding the War in Iraq Continue Funding
Cut off Funding
Overall 54% 46%
Democrats 34% 66%
Republicans 76% 24%
Independents 54% 46%
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
56% believe that the Iraq War is distracting us from the war on terror; 46% believe it is an essential part.
67% believe that the Iraq War is creating, rather than eliminating, terrorists.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Most Americans see Iran as a long term threat to the U.S.
20%
68%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Iran
Immediatethreat
Long termthreat
No threat
60
Specific Foreign Policy Issues
14%
40%46%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Efforts to Stop Iran fromDeveloping Nuclear
Weapons
Done TooMuch
Right Amount
Done Too Little
Overall, 46% say the Bush Administration has not done enough to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
72% of Americans prefer diplomacy to pressure with Iran, but if diplomacy does not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, 57% favor military action.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
64% of voters would favor air strikes against military and suspected nuclear sites in Iran if diplomacy fails.
But 65% of voters oppose sending U.S. troops into Iran to take control of the country.
And 62% of voters oppose the assassination of President Ahmadinejad.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Most think the U.S. occupation of Iraq makes Iran more likely to develop nuclear weapons:
– 63% say more likely– 21% say less likely– 37% say the occupation has no impact
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Close to two thirds of Americans believe that North Korea poses a long term threat to the U.S.
20%
64%
16%
0
20
40
60
80
100
North Korea
Immediatethreat
Long termthreat
No threat
65
Specific Foreign Policy Issues
66% believe that a nuclear crisis in North Korea can be resolved with diplomacy instead of military force.
53% favor military action if diplomacy in North Korea does not work.
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Russia is narrowly seen as an ally of the U.S., and Americans oppose a missile shield in Europe.
Russia
Ally 53%
Enemy 47%
Missile Shield in Europe
Support shield, despite Russian objections
43%
Oppose shield, will amplify Russian tensions
57%
67
Specific Foreign Policy Issues
The American people oppose the U.S. leading a new peace initiative in the Middle East but want U.S. involvement.
24%
52%
24%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Should U.S. lead newpeace initiative
between Israel andPalestine?
Support U.S.leadinginitiatve
Want U.S.involved/notleader
U.S. shouldn'tbe involved
68
Specific Foreign Policy Issues
Almost half of voters do not want the U.S. to be involved in the Middle East conflict between Hamas and Fatah.
47%
28%20%
1%0
20
40
60
80
100
U.S.role in conflictbetween Hamas and
Fatah
Do nothing -it's an internalcivil war
Support FatahandAbbas/moderate Arabs
Support bothFatah andHamas
Support Hamas
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Specific Foreign Policy Issues
In general, most Americans do not think the U.S. should be involved in the Middle East, as it makes the situation worse and creates more anti-Americanism and terror.
General U.S. Role in Middle East
Support democratization to reduce Islamic Fundamentalism
37%
U.S. should not be involved in the Middle East
63%
70
United Nations
71
United Nations
60% believe that the U.N. should have more power and authority.
U.N. Power and Authority
More 60%
Less 40%
72
United Nations
However, only 25% rate the job the U.N. has done in solving international problems positively.
U.N. Performance in Solving International Problems
Positive ratings 25%
Negative ratings 75%
73
United Nations
General U.S. Role in Middle East
The U.S. should be more willing to make decisions and work within the U.N. even if it means compromising on policy.
67%
The U.S. should not work with the U.N. if it means sacrificing some U.S. interests. 33%