Post on 09-May-2015
House Budget Committee
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
History of Budget DeficitsSince 1989
Bush I Clinton Bush II
Budget Deficits/Surpluses in Billions
11/01/2009
A
Debt Held by the Public Nearly Doubled under Bush Administration
Source: U.S. Treasury 01/06/2009
$6.3 Trillion
$3.4 Trillion
B
House Budget Committee
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
10.0%9.6%
7.3%
5.2%
4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%5.3%
5.8%
Realistic Scenario
Latest CBO Estimates Confirm Troubling Fiscal Picture
% of GDP
C
House Budget Committee
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201930%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
40.8%
53.4%
61.5%
66.4%68.5% 69.5%
71.3%73.0%
74.8%76.5% 77.5%
79.7%
Realistic Scenario
Projected Deficits Lead to an Ever Rising Public Debt
% of GDP
D
House Budget Committee
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
108.6%
79.7%
Realistic Scenario
Debt Held by the Public Is Projected to Reach Levels Not Seen Since World War II
Est
imate
s
% of GDP
E
Net Interest Expenditure Reaches 16.7% of Federal Spending by 2019
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
5.4% 5.4%
6.7%
8.4%
10.5%
12.9%
14.3%15.0%
15.8%16.4% 16.7%
Percent of Federal Spending
Based on Realistic Scenario
F
Even Very Strong Economic Growth Not Sufficient to Return to Balance in 2019
2019 CBO + 0.5%
Reagan Era CBO + 1.0%
Clinton Era CBO + 2.0%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200 $1,110.0
$145.9
$271.0 $295.1
$427.4
$604.0
Note: These are GDP growth scenarios. "CBO + 0.5%" means the real GDP growth CBO has forecasted, plus an added 0.5 percent of real GDP growth in each year after 2013. "Clinton Era" is real GDP growth of 3.7 percent per year over 2010-19; "Reagan Era" is 3.4% real GDP growth per year while "Bush Era" ('01-'06 average only) is 2.4% real growth per year. Scenarios of +2.0% or more additional real growth each year are considered highly unlikely, however.
Amount of Deficit Reduction Needed to
Reach Balance in 2019
Billions of Nominal Dollars
Deficit Reduction From Alternative Economic Growth Paths
G
House Budget Committee
19401944
19481952
19561960
19641968
19721976
19801984
19881992
19962000
20042008
20122016
20202024
20282032
20362040
20442048
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
ActualCBPP
Projections
Under Current Policies Debt Will Reach Almost 300% of GDP by2050
Source: CBPP Projections based on CBO Data
Debt as a Share of GDP, 1940-2050
H
House Budget Committee
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
205023.5%
Big 3 Programs Plus Net Interest Would Consume All Federal Revenue by 2050
Source: CBO The Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2009
Net Interest
All Other
Spending
Medicaid
Medicare
Social Security
Program Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP
I
Revenues
House Budget Committee
2010 20500%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1.9%3.2%
3.1%
9.0%
Medicare
Fed Medicaid
Program Spending as a Share of GDP
Growth in Health Care Spending Almost Triples Over 40 Years
J
House Budget Committee
Tax revenues among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries
K