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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010
Philip R Wood, QC (Hon)
Head of Allen & Overy Global Law Intelligence Unit
Predictions for the future of law and lawyers
Visiting Professor in International Financial Law, University of Oxford
Yorke Distinguished Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge
Visiting Professor, Queen Mary College, University of London
Visiting Professor, London School of Economics & Political Science
April 2011
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Leaders
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GDP per capita
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GDP FOOTBALL FIELDS ($10 trillion)
US
U
2010
S
U
2030
S (17)
CHI
EU
US EU
US EU (15)
CHI
JAPAN+
Tigers
THE REST
EU
EU
CHINAINDIA(10)
JAPAN+
TigersCHINA
JAPAN&
ASIA(19)
JAPAN&
ASIA
INDIALATIN
AMERICA(6)
THEREST
JAPAN&
ASIA
JAPAN&
ASIA
THEREST (6)NA (23) NA
1995
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Growth of law: tentative chart
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
500BC
0 500AD
1000 1500 1800 2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tipping Point 1830s:
World population: 1 bn (now 6.4 bn)World GDP $700 bn (now $50 tn)Great DivideTriple polarization
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Growth of law: tentative chart
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
500BC
0 500AD
1000 1500 1800 2000
Tipping Point 1830s:
World population:World GDPGreat DivideTriple polarization
1 bn (now 6.4 bn)$700 bn (now $50 tn)
Pop. scale: 1 = 0.5 bnGDP scale: 0.2 = $1 bn
Population
GDP
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Bank insolvencies 1980-2002
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Financial regulatory regimes
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State insolvency 1980-2005
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Impact of the financial crisis - 1
– 1,000 measures– Restrictions on bank business– Capital, liquidity– Securitisations– Derivatives– Accounting– Hedge fund and private equity– Deposit protection– Taxes and special levies– Shorting and shareholding disclosure
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Impact of the financial crisis - 2
– Securities settlement and payment systems– Regulators– Bank insolvencies– Corporate insolvencies– State insolvency– Super-priority creditors: the big three risk mitigants– Consumer protection– Litigation– Other– Overall assessment
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[ ]
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Map: Key map of jurisdictions
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Global jurisdictions
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Major changes to insolvency legislation 1997-2007
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Major changes to company law 2000-2009
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1975 - World Financial Law: Five key indicators
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2010 - World Financial Law: Five key indicators
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Million: 1,000,000
Billion: 1,000,000,000
Trillion: 1,000,000,000,000
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Contract law
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Paris Industrial Property Convention 1883
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Map: New York Arbitration Convention of 1958
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Map: Free choice of law for business contracts
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Map: Hague Trust Recognition Convention 1986
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Map: International insolvency treaties
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Map: English common law jurisdictions
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Supermap: Global security interests
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Map: Napoleonic jurisdictions
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Map: Insolvency set-off
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Map: Roman-Germanic jurisdictions
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Supermap: The trust
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Map: Mixed civil/common law jurisdictions
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Map: Islamic jurisdictions
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Map: New and unallocated jurisdictions
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Map: American common law jurisdictions
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Map: Corporate insolvency rescue statutes
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Corporate insolvency rescue statutes
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Experts in their field
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