" Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“

Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS

birkmann@ehs.unu.edu

"Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“

United Nations UniversityInstitute for Environment and

Human Security

(UNU-EHS)

Flood Conference – ICLR, May 6-8, 2008, Toronto, Canada

Assessment of Social Vulnerability at Sub-national Scale

Dr.-Ing. Jörn Birkmann & Alexander Fekete

Content

1. Motivation

2. Vulnerability – Different Schools of

Thought

3. Conceptual Framework

4. Assessment Process for the Sub-National

5. Data Limitations

6. Scale Issues

7. Conclusions

Understanding of Vulnerability

XXrisk = risk =

probability of failureprobability of failure

of coastal defences

consequences consequences

due to flooding

Fundamental Equation of Risk Analysis

Source: Stephan Mai 2006

Expected Damage

total economic value Euro/m²

Source: Stephan Mai 2006

Social Vulnerability

Tsunami 2004: Gender imbalance Katrina 2005: Institutional failure; but also ethnical Banat flood 2005: Cultural acquaintance; - duration

www.hurricanekatrina.com

www.ukim.org

New Orleans - SuperdomeSri Lanka

Vulnerability Definitions

“... a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, and environmental factors which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard“ (UNDP, 2004)

“... the likelihood of injury, death, loss, disruption of livelihood or other harm in an extreme event, and/or unusual difficulties in recovering from such effects“ (Wisner, 2002)

Social Vulnerability in Germany

Are some social groups more vulnerable ?

Baseline social problems in Germany:

Unemployment Migration; ethnic integration; racism Ageing of the population; pension security Relative poverty gap

Project DISFLOOD

Identify social and ecological vulnerability

Interlink vulnerability to hazard

Provide overview for 3 river-areas

GIS Integration

Boundary-Conditions

Data availability for the whole research area

End-user:- Administrative units

Target definition- Comparability- Completeness

The BBC-Framework

Source: Bogardi/Birkmann (2004) and Cardona (1999/2001)

Social Vulnerability Index -Criteria

Exposure Potential People Settlement area

Sensitivity Unemployment, welfare dependence Ethnic and economic conditions Age, dependency, gender

Capacities Income and building type Education and medical supply Physical vitality

Social Vulnerability Index

Input: 34 variables of Federal statistical data 2006

Method: Factor analysis, with varimax rotation

Result: 4 Composite factors that indicate vulnerability

Income Population density Physical fragility, age Lack of medical care

General Social Vulnerability Index

Which social groups are more vulnerable?

34 demographic variablese.g. age, education, income

Map shows general vulnerability

Comparable studies on county level in USA, UK, Spain, Germany

Data: Federal statistical office 2007, BKG 2007

Ecological Vulnerability

DISFLOOD - Marion Damm Aggregation to county scale enables integration

Hazard-Specific Vulnerability

Flood experience

Critical infrastructure

Early warning systems

Scale implications:

Availability only for certain areas

Exposure-Degree

Percentage of flooded settlement area per county

Data: CORINE 2000, HQ extreme IKSR 2001

Integration: Hazards & Vulnerability

Risk = f(hazards; vulnerabilities)

Vulnerability = exposure, sensitivity,

capacities = the internal predisposition

Outlook - Disaster Risk Index

Combines social and ecological vulnerability

Combines hazard and vulnerability parameters

Data is normalised, equal weighting, ranks after standard

deviations

Scale Implications

Multiple-scale problems

Reductionist components: Validation by household

questionnaire

Level of focus: Vulnerability Phenomenon

Constraints level: e.g. economic and political

dynamics of the country

Lit.: Gibson et al. 2000, O‘Neill 1988

HIERARCHY

Scale of the Hazard

Scale implication:

Extreme event data more suitable for sub-national scale

Legend:

Blue line: HQ100

Blue area: HQ extreme

Symbols: Infrastructure

Fekete 2007

Outlook: more detailed study on local level – BBK study (Birkmann)

City of Cologne

www.ehs.unu.edu

birkmann@ehs.unu.edu & fekete@ehs.unu.edu

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