Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости Варшавы 2009

Post on 11-May-2015

646 views 5 download

Tags:

description

Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости Варшавы от Cushman&Wakefield, презентованный на бизнес-форуме «Недвижимость. Инвестиции & Девелопмент. Европейский опыт и белорусская реальность», организованном компанией "Твоя столица" в Минске.

Transcript of Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости Варшавы 2009

Market PresentationFebruary 2010

Warsawreal estatemarket

2

WarsawWarsaw-- basicbasic datadata

3

About Warsaw

Capital of Poland, business centerThe largest city of Poland:

1,7 mln inhabitants (metropolitan area: 2,8 mln)city area: 516.9 km² (metropolitan area: 6,100 km²)

Warsaw

Central Business District

4

Warsaw commercial real estate market in figures(4Q 2009)

3 248 000 m²of office space

1 600 000 m²of retail space

2 483 000 m²of industrial space

20 680accommodation placesin 10 650hotel rooms

5

WarsawWarsawoofficefficemarketmarket

6

Warsaw Office Market

Rents and Vacancy Rates in CBD and NCL in Warsaw

€ 0,00

€ 5,00

€ 10,00

€ 15,00

€ 20,00

€ 25,00

€ 30,00

€ 35,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

forecast

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

Prime rents CBD Prime rents NCLVacancy rate CBD Vacancy rate NCL

Stock in Warsaw (in m²)

2 376 769 2 557 136 2 707 8192 978 904

3 248 197 3404197

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

forecast

Warsaw stock in 2009

3 248 197 m²

7

Key Office Projects in Warsaw

Wolf Marszałkowska, WarsawDeveloper: Wolf ImmobilienTotal space: 14,400 m²

Wilanów Office Park, WarsawInvestor / Developer: Polnord WarszawaTotal space: 169,000 m²

Business Garden, WarsawDeveloper: Inter IKEA Group – SwedeCenterTotal space: 90,000 m²

Platinium Business Park, WarsawDeveloper: GTCTotal space: 45,000 m²

Metropolitan, WarsawClient: Aberdeen Total space: 69,300 m²

Marynarska Business Park, WarsawClient: AberdeenTotal area: 86,600 m²

8

WarsawWarsawrretailetailmarketmarket

9

Warsaw Retail Market

Shopping centres in Warsaw (in m²)

170007000

73500

12 000

33 000

52 650

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

forecast

Warsaw stock in 2009

1 600 000 m²

Prime rents in shopping centres in Warsaw (EUR/m²/month)

65

75 75

83 81

50

60

70

80

90

4Q 2007 2Q 2008 4Q 2008 2Q 2009 4Q 2009

10

Key Retail Projects in Poland

Galeria Malta, PoznańDeveloper: NeinverGLA: 53,000 m²

IKEA Port Łódź, ŁódźDeveloper: Inter IKEA Centre Polska GLA: 100,000 m²

Galeria Słoneczna, RadomDeveloper : AIG / LincolnGLA: 40,000 m²

Galeria Katowicka, KatowiceDeveloper: Neinver/PKPGLA: 52,000 m²

Złote Tarasy, WarsawDeveloper: ING Real EstateGLA: 63,500 m²

Wola Park, WarsawDeveloper: Wola ParkGLA: 72,846 m²

11

WarsawWarsaw iindustrialndustrial marketmarket

12

Supply and demand in Warsaw (in m²)

050 000

100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 000450 000500 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* forecastAnnual supply - Warsaw city Annual supply - Warsaw region

Annual demand - Warsaw region Annual demand - Warsaw city

Warsaw Industrial Market

Warsaw stock in 2009

2 483 000 m²

13

Key Industrial Projects in Poland

ProLogis Park Wrocław IV, WrocławDeveloper: ProLogisTenant: NG2Size: 10,800 m²

Panattoni Park Wrocław, WrocławDeveloper: PanattoniTenant: HemmersbachSize: 8,000 m²

Europolis Park Poland Center,Piotrków TrybunalskiDeveloper: Europolis Tenant: FM LogisticSize: 35,000 m²

ProLogis Park Błonie II, BłonieDeveloper: ProLogisTenant: AntalisSize: 52,000 m²

Panattoni Poznań, PoznańDeveloper: PanattoniTenant: Hennes&Mauritz, Hellmann, Piotr i PawełSize: 127,000 m²

ProLogis Park Sochaczew, SochaczewDeveloper: ProLogisTenant: Procter & Gamble, DHLSize: 100,390 m²

14

HotelsHotels

15

Hospitality market in Warsaw

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*forecast

2011*forecast

2012*forecast

num

ber o

f roo

ms

and

acco

mm

odat

ion

plac

es

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

num

ber o

f hot

els

numebr of accommodation places number of rooms number of hotels

Warsaw Hospitality Market

Number of hotels in Warsaw in 2009

9

16

22

610

0

5

10

15

20

25

1-star 2-stars 3-stars 4-stars 5-stars

20 680 accommodation places

10 650 hotel rooms

Key development factors:organisation of the European Football Championships in 2012 –expected increase of tourists over 2 to 4 years period after championshipsbusiness concentration – demand generated mainly by corporate clientspotential niche in the economy class hotel sectorpotential in the construction of hotels near airports and railway stations

16

Key Hospitality Projects in Poland

Sheraton, Poznań5 stars, 181 rooms, 360 accommodation places

Mikołajki Project Hotel, Mikołajki5 stars, 152 rooms, 304 accommodation places

Wioślarska Hotel Project, Warsaw4 stars, 100 rooms, 200 accommodation places

Mercure Jelenia Góra, Jelenia Góra 3 stars, 188 rooms, 364 accommodation places

Hilton Garden Inn Project, Kraków 4 stars, 154 rooms,300 accomodation places

Łeba Hotel, Łeba 3 stars, 73 rooms,186 accommodation places

17

InvestmentInvestment

18

Investment Market

Office investment deals 2005 - 2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tota

l cum

ulat

ive

(bn

EU

R

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Transactions annually (mln E

UR

)Total cumulative Warsaw CBD 115,00 Warsaw NCL Other cities

Cushman & Wakefield key transactions in Poland

Real estate propertyportfolio of Simon Ivanhoe – selling 5 shopping centres

Real estate property portfolio of Casino Group –selling 339.686 m² of space

Prime yield 2005 - 2009

4,00%5,00%6,00%7,00%8,00%9,00%

10,00%11,00%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

industrial retail office CBD office NCL

19

ConclusionConclusion

20

Warsaw real estate market forecasts

supply demand rents vacancy

office market

CBD

NCL

retail market

industrial market

hospitality market

price level

21

Thank you!Thank you!