Post on 15-Jan-2016
12.3.0812.3.08כנס לקוחות כנס לקוחות
The Soybean
The Soybean Flow
Follow the money!
Field
Ground transportation
Elevator
River Transportation
Ocean Freight
Ground transportation
Crushing
Transportation to Client
מקורות יבוא
USA14%
Brasil42%
Paraguay38%
Argentina6%
CBOT70%
Premium2%Dagon
2%Clearing
1%
Ground Transportation
0%
Ocean Freight15%
Crushing Costs10%
The Soybean (money) components
Chicago Board Of Trade
• Supply (land sowed, weather, yields etc…)• Demand (Food, Feed, Energy etc…)• Stocks to Use ratio• Funds (mainly technical)• “Outside” markets
FIELD – The Supply
The US Grain and Soybean Belt
6 weeks drought monitor animation
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08USDAFeb
07/08Citi Est
08/09CitiProj
US Soybeans Stock Deviation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08USDAFeb
07/08CitiEst
08/09CitiProj
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
C/O
S/U ratio
US Soybeans Carry Out and Stock To Use Ratio
US Soybean Ending Stocks, Million Bushels
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
6507
1/7
2
72/
73
73/
74
74/
75
75/
76
76/
77
77/
78
78/
79
79/
80
80/
81
81/
82
82/
83
83/
84
84/
85
85/
86
86/
87
87/
88
88/
89
89/
90
90/
91
91/
92
92/
93
93/
94
94/
95
95/
96
96/
97
97/
98
98/
99
99/
00
00/
01
01/
02
02/
03
03/
04
04/
05
05/
06
06/
07C
iti
07/
08C
iti
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Ending Stocks, Left Scale Stocks/Use, Right Scale
US stocks are declining to minimum levels. No signs of sufficient rationing yet. Supply tightness in the 08/09 season could become more severe if a large increase in area is not secured.
Brazil Agriculture area
Matto Grosso
Amazonas
M G del SulS P
Parana
Rio Grande D SSanta Catarina
Goias Minas
GeraisRio De Janeiro
Para
BahiaTocantins
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS
AREA MIL HA 13.60 13.93 16.35 18.45 21.52 22.80 22.23 20.70 21.80YLD MT/HA 2.55 2.83 2.66 2.82 2.37 2.32 2.56 2.81 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.40 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74PRODUCTION 34.70 39.50 43.50 52.00 51.00 53.00 57.00 59.00 61.04IMPORTS 0.80 0.86 1.05 1.12 0.37 0.35 0.04 0.04 0.08SUPPLY 35.90 40.98 45.01 53.80 54.66 56.84 58.56 61.37 63.86
CRUSH 21.58 22.77 25.84 27.80 28.91 29.73 28.75 31.25 31.70EXPORTS 11.78 15.52 16.07 19.99 19.26 22.80 24.77 24.48 26.35SFR 1.93 2.22 2.41 2.72 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.90 3.10TOTAL USE 35.29 40.52 44.33 50.50 51.17 55.33 56.22 58.63 61.15
END STOCKS 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74 2.71
SOYMEAL
BEG. STOCKS 0.44 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42PRODUCTION 16.83 17.72 20.10 21.68 22.55 23.10 22.08 24.06 24.73IMPORTS 0.12 0.23 0.37 0.29 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.07 0.11SUPPLY 17.39 18.41 20.82 22.59 23.59 24.06 23.10 25.00 26.26
DOMESTIC 7.06 6.92 7.42 8.19 8.26 9.02 9.96 10.92 11.30EXPORTS 9.87 11.13 12.78 13.54 14.56 14.23 12.28 12.65 13.65TOTAL USE 16.93 18.05 20.20 21.73 22.82 23.25 22.23 23.58 24.95
END STOCKS 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42 1.31
SOYOIL
BEG. STOCKS 0.20 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32PRODUCTION 2.24 2.34 2.58 2.76 2.99 3.12 2.78 3.20 3.26IMPORTS 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01SUPPLY 2.49 2.61 2.75 2.95 3.21 3.39 3.07 3.51 3.60
DOMESTIC 3.03 2.99 2.91 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.13 3.46 4.15EXPORTS 1.13 1.62 2.10 2.40 2.53 2.74 2.31 2.57 2.03TOTAL USE 4.16 4.61 5.01 5.37 5.51 5.74 5.45 6.03 6.18
END STOCKS 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.31
MEAL EQUIV 19.23 23.47 25.56 29.43 29.87 32.35 31.97 32.11 34.60OIL EQUIV 3.37 4.57 5.15 6.20 6.19 7.07 7.02 7.22 7.04
BRAZIL SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE
FEB-JAN, MILLION TONNES
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS
AREA MIL HA 8.58 10.40 11.40 12.60 14.00 14.40 15.20 16.00 16.80YLD MT/HA 2.47 2.67 2.63 2.82 2.36 2.71 2.66 2.95 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.29 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54PRODUCTION 21.20 27.80 30.00 35.50 33.00 39.00 40.50 47.20 47.04IMPORTS 0.44 0.55 0.47 0.53 0.71 0.68 1.01 2.28 2.35SUPPLY 21.93 28.81 31.34 37.97 36.47 43.35 43.89 51.89 52.93
CRUSH 16.35 19.26 22.01 24.78 24.67 29.21 32.65 35.01 38.75EXPORTS 4.10 7.48 6.18 8.92 6.57 10.12 7.13 11.59 9.40SFR 1.01 1.19 1.20 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.90TOTAL USE 21.46 27.94 29.39 35.21 32.79 40.97 41.48 48.35 50.05
END STOCKS 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54 2.88
SOYMEAL
BEG. STOCKS 0.33 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26PRODUCTION 12.94 15.29 17.47 19.60 19.40 23.05 25.71 27.39 30.32SUPPLY 13.27 15.44 17.74 19.86 19.78 23.53 26.04 27.78 30.58
DOMESTIC 0.19 0.23 0.22 0.36 0.28 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.45EXPORTS 12.93 14.94 17.26 19.12 19.01 22.73 25.22 27.13 29.85TOTAL USE 13.12 15.17 17.49 19.48 19.29 23.20 25.65 27.53 30.30
END STOCKS 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26 0.28
SOYOIL
BEG. STOCKS 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30PRODUCTION 2.99 3.58 4.04 4.64 4.65 5.48 6.16 6.74 7.31SUPPLY 3.07 3.68 4.16 4.85 4.82 5.70 6.36 6.99 7.61
DOMESTIC 0.12 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.21 0.38 0.32 0.36 0.80EXPORTS 2.85 3.47 3.78 4.34 4.39 5.12 5.78 6.34 6.52TOTAL USE 2.97 3.56 3.96 4.68 4.60 5.50 6.10 6.69 7.32
END STOCKS 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30 0.29
MEAL EQUIV 16.19 20.89 22.18 26.22 24.23 30.77 30.89 36.35 37.32OIL EQUIV 3.61 4.86 4.92 5.99 5.60 6.99 7.10 8.48 8.26
ARGENTINE SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE
MAR-FEB, MILILON TONNES
SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
32.5 31.3 34.239.3
43.552.0 51.0 53.0
57.0 59.0 61.0
19.5 20.021.2
27.8
40.5
47.247.0
3.0 3.0
3.5
4.53.9
4.0
6.5
1.2 1.1
1.9
1.4
2.4
2.8
35.530.0
33.0
39.0
6.0
3.5
2.9
4.1
2.4
2.7
1.4
2.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
il t
on
ne
s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Brazil Argentina Paraguay Other S.A. US
56.255.4
60.2
78.4
72.0
94.0
89.8
102.2
114.6
98.7
117.4
Relatively small increase in South America production is expected. Would not take much of a crop problem before production is lower than the previous year
World Soybean Production, Thousand Tonnes
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
87/
88
88/
89
89/
90
90/
91
91/
92
92/
93
93/
94
94/
95
95/
96
96/
9797
/98
98/9
999
/00
00/0
101
/02
02/0
303
/04
04/0
505
/06
06/0
707
/08
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Change (right scale) World total (left scale)
Record yearly decline in world soybean production, assuming normal South American yields
Soy Complex
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
10/0
3/20
08
17/0
1/20
08
27/1
1/20
07
08/1
0/20
07
17/0
8/20
07
28/0
6/20
07
09/0
5/20
07
20/0
3/20
07
29/0
1/20
07
06/1
2/20
06
17/1
0/20
06
28/0
8/20
06
10/0
7/20
06
18/0
5/20
06
29/0
3/20
06
07/0
2/20
06
15/1
2/20
05
26/1
0/20
05
07/0
9/20
05
19/0
7/20
05
27/0
5/20
05
08/0
4/20
05
16/0
2/20
05
27/1
2/20
04
04/1
1/20
04
16/0
9/20
04
28/0
7/20
04
07/0
6/20
04
16/0
4/20
04
26/0
2/20
04
06/0
1/20
04
15.00
25.00
35.00
45.00
55.00
65.00
75.00MealSbeansOil
Soy Complex2006-today
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
03/0
1/20
06
01/0
2/20
06
02/0
3/20
06
30/0
3/20
06
28/0
4/20
06
26/0
5/20
06
26/0
6/20
06
25/0
7/20
06
22/0
8/20
06
20/0
9/20
06
18/1
0/20
06
15/1
1/20
06
14/1
2/20
06
16/0
1/20
07
13/0
2/20
07
14/0
3/20
07
12/0
4/20
07
10/0
5/20
07
08/0
6/20
07
09/0
7/20
07
06/0
8/20
07
04/0
9/20
07
02/1
0/20
07
30/1
0/20
07
28/1
1/20
07
27/1
2/20
07
28/0
1/20
08
26/0
2/20
08
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00MealSbeansOil
Crush Margin CBOT
Averages: 2007 – 63, 2006 – 71, 2005 - 51
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
06/0
5/04
06/0
7/04
06/0
9/04
06/1
1/04
06/0
1/05
06/0
3/05
06/0
5/05
06/0
7/05
06/0
9/05
06/1
1/05
06/0
1/06
06/0
3/06
06/0
5/06
06/0
7/06
06/0
9/06
06/1
1/06
06/0
1/07
06/0
3/07
06/0
5/07
06/0
7/07
06/0
9/07
06/1
1/07
06/0
1/08
06/0
3/08